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This fallacy considers only some possible scenarios when making a decision or prediction. By examining only favorable or only unfavorable outcomes, the analysis doesn't represent the full range of possibilities.
Also known as Partial Scenario Analysis, this is a informal fallacy — the error lies in the content or context of the argument rather than its formal structure.
"In the best case, this investment doubles our money in two years." Only discussing the best case ignores the base case and worst case scenarios.
"Best case: 100% return in two years. Base case: 15% return. Worst case: 30% loss. Probability-weighted expected return is approximately 12%. Here's the scenario analysis."
Always consider at least three scenarios: best case, base case (most likely), and worst case. Assign probabilities to each and calculate the expected outcome. Decisions should account for the full range of possibilities.
Paste your text above to scan for incomplete scenario fallacy patterns and other reasoning errors. Each flagged passage includes an explanation and a suggestion for making the argument stronger.
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